THE COST OF WAR IN SOUTH SUDAN
The
conflict in South Sudan since December 2013 has devastated the lives of majority
of South Sudan’s people. It has killed tens of thousands, placed nearly a third
of the population at risk of famine and ravaged key parts of the country. The
conflict has been brutal killings, rape, forced recruitment of children, mass
displacement and the destruction of livelihoods. It has left open wounds that
will take decades to heal.
No
monetary figure or economic projection can quantify the full human cost of the
conflict in South Sudan. There can be no price tag on the suffering of South
Sudan’s people from displacement, famine and death. But it is possible to assess
the direct economic costs by estimating the loss of productive assets and
capital, the reduction in economic activity, and the domestic diversion from
productive to non-productive activities. The costs are equally severe for
neighbouring countries and the international community at large including, in
this case, the likely decline in formal trade flows with South Sudan’s
neighbours, and the cost of providing humanitarian aid and UN peacekeepers for
years to come.
Depending on the intensity of the
conflict, the costs for South Sudan could reach a staggering range of between US$22
billion and $28 billion over the next five years. But if action is taken now to
ensure peace is achieved in 2015 (rather than 2020), the international
community, particularly Western donors, could save about US$30 billion by
reducing expenditure on peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance. This scenario
would also mean that the neighbouring economies of Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan,
Tanzania and Uganda could collectively save US$53 billion.
The full effects of conflict, such as
environmental degradation, the break-down of social cohesion and the
psycho-social trauma generated by sexual violence and child exploitation, are
difficult to capture in their entirety in an economic cost benefit analysis.
South Sudan can ill-afford the economic costs of war, but after decades
fighting for independence from its northern neighbour, it is even less equipped
to bear the heavy social costs of another generation growing up in a violently
divided society. The longer the violence continues, the further it spreads, and
the more insidious it becomes, the more difficult the task will be for South
Sudan to undergo the kind of social, psychological and economic transformation
needed to achieve lasting peace. An inclusive approach to peace negotiations should
be implemented so that all South Sudanese people have a stake in their nation’s
future.
By
Colletor Adoyo
